Hurricane Isabel

Aside from September 11, much of the discussion around here is centered on where Hurricane Isabel will go. The current forecast path is not encouraging, even though it's still a few days away from any sort of reliable forecast about impact in this area.

According to the National Hurricane Center's 5 AM 12-SEP-2003 discussion,

THE GFDL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL...TURNS THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...AND DEPENDING UPON THE RUN YOU PICK...THE TURN OCCURS FARTHER TO THE WEST OR FARTHER TO THE EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UK MODEL WHICH HAS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ...MOVES THE HURRICANE FASTER AND BRING ISABEL DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE U.S. COAST IN 5 DAYS. THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING ITS TUNE FROM RUN TO RUN...IS MUCH SLOWER AND IN 5 DAYS PLACES THE HURRICANE ABOUT 450 N MI FROM THE U.S COAST. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN SEVERAL MORE DAYS. FINALLY...THE NOGAPS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS UP TO 5 DAYS.

In short, I think it's time to start assembling our hurricane kit. Even if it turns out to miss us, it's better to be prepared than to be trying to scramble at the last minute (which everyone else is bound to be doing).