Yesterday a couple of local radio guys were joking about how if Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel showed up on Folly Beach, then it's time to get out. He always seems to go where the weather is going to be the worst. But if Mike Seidel showed up, then it was probably OK.
The latest 11 AM discussion from the NHC makes a Florida landfall in a couple of days more probable The wife has a notion that Frances will decide to skirt the coast, so our preparations continue.
GFS...AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. NOW THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND GFDL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE HOLDING THE RIDGE STRONG AND LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER THAN THE EYE.