TD 3 sprouts

TD3 popped up just off the east coast of the Yucatan penninsula yesterday. This morning's 5AM NHC discussion forecasts it heading northwest into the western Gulf of Mexico and turning into a tropical storm in a day or two, which would make it TS Cindy.

From the 5AM discussion:

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN. THE MODELS THAT FORECAST AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN... INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD THE LOUISIANA OR UPPER TEXAS COASTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE DEPRESSION CIRCULATION BECOMES ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE BAM MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE SCENARIO FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE...CALLING FOR THE NORTHWARD TURN.

TD 3 - 5AM 4-Jul-05