TD 9 got named Irene yesterday morning. May not stay a storm for much longer, but in any case looks to be curving back out into the Atlantic and shouldn't be a bother to the US at all. With nothing else brewing out there at the moment, back to our regularly scheduled enjoyment of the weather.
IRENE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING EVEN THOUGH THE STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR IRENE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHEAR THAT WILL ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IRENE OVER COOLER SSTS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL IS AGAIN DISSIPATING IRENE IN LESS THAN 48 HR.