More storms forecast

Not surprisingly, the NHC's August update is now calling for 18-21 named storms (up from 12-15 forecast at the beginning of the season) with 9-11 of those becoming hurricanes. There have been 7 so far this season, leaving 11-14 left to go for the rest of the season.

From the August update:

Even though there has already been considerable early season activity (7 tropical storms, with two becoming major hurricanes), most of the activity is still expected to occur during the climatological peak months of August-October.

The favorable conditions predicted by NOAA in their outlook issued May 16th are now in place. These conditions are expected to persist through the peak August-October months of the season. They include 1) lower surface air pressure and exceptionally warm SSTs across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, 2) an amplified subtropical ridge at upper levels across the central and eastern North Atlantic, 3) reduced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, which results from an expanded area of easterly winds in the upper atmosphere and weaker easterly trade winds in the lower atmosphere, and 4) a configuration of the African easterly jet (wavy light blue arrow) that favors hurricane development from tropical disturbances moving westward from the African coast.
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