As anticipated, TD 16 was designated TS Ophelia and just seems to be meandering around off the eastern coast of Florida. These storms that just sit there make me nervous, because they have plenty of time to soak up heat from the warm ocean and get stronger and there's no telling where they end up going.
OPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT OPHELIA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST...RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DRIFT BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OPHELIA WILL LIKELY MEANDER JUST OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.