Ophelia finally getting underway

Looks like TS Ophelia (for now) is finally getting underway, although rather slowly. According to the NHC, it's moving to the NNW slowly as a strong tropical storm, taking it away from us and toward the NC coast. Looks like it will still be lingering around being a bother for the next couple of days though.

From today's 11 AM discussion:

THE LARGER CIRCULATION AND PRESSURE FIELD APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES A SMALL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CELL HAS MOVED FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...DURING WHICH TIME THE HEIGHTS HAVE DECREASED BY AT LEAST 30-40 METERS. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW OPHELIA TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE TURNING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND CROSSING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.
ONCE OPHELIA NEARS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE SSTS DROP BY ABOUT 3F-5F...THERE MAY BE SOME EROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE RADIUS IF MAXIMUM WINDS...ONLY SLOW INTENSITY CHANGES UP OR DOWN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE...DURING...AND AFTER LANDFALL. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...SO SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND OPHELIA COULD PEAK AT 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCUR.

TS Ophelia - 13-Sep-05