Ophelia still loitering

Sitting over the same area for the past couple of days has resulted in Ophelia being downgraded (again) to a tropical storm, although it may strengthen again as it starts moving over the Gulf Stream.

Looks like Ophelia will just make the next few days on the breezy side for us. People in NC's Outer Banks should start making preparations though. Ophelia's a storm that will probably keep folks hanging on the edge of their seats for a few more days.

Fortunately there isn't anything else out in the Atlantic that looks likely to develop in to anything. That should mean a quiet week weather-wise (aside from Ophelia).

From today's 11AM discussion:

THE TRACK FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA OVER A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM...WHERE A MODESTLY DEEP WARM WATER MIXED LAYER...I.E. HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...COULD INDUCE RE-STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM RE-ATTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE NEARING THE COAST.
BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE SO ILL-DEFINED...THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS A DIFFICULT ONE. SOME GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN...INDICATE THAT THE BROAD 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PICK UP OPHELIA AND ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE WE HAVE THE UNPLEASANT POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE GFS AND GFDL STILL MOVE OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC BEYOND 3 DAYS...BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME.

TS Ophelia - 12-Sep-05