TD 15 as predicted

As predicted, the NHC has designated the system SSE of Bermuda TD 15. The forecast has this system strengthening into a tropical storm (which would be called Nate), but not too much more than that. Looks like this one will also stay out in the ocean and not bother us.

THE SYSTEM LIES NEAR A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE DEPRESSION TO THE BAHAMAS...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR. BEYOND THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GET CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND PUT AN END TO THE INTENSIFICATION. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS TREND...PEAKING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN CONSERVATIVELY PEAKING AT 50 KT AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

TD 15 - 5-Sep-05