No slacking off yet

The NHC is calling this subtropical depression 22

SUBTROPICAL INSTEAD OF TROPICAL DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH A LARGE-MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE.

Forecast has it reaching tropical storm in a couple of days, but looks like it will be staying out in the ocean and heading to the northeast US. After all the rain they've had this weekend, they might get another drenching next weekend.

From today's 5PM discussion:

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO PULSES OF SHEAR DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND THEN UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AFTER THREE DAYS. THE GFDL AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL LOSE THE SYSTEM IN 36-72 HR. ALL OF THIS...COMBINED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C-27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST THE CYCLONE COULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING A LITTLE ABOVE THAT OF THE SHIPS MODEL... WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48 KT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT ON THE FORMATION OF THE SECOND LOW...OR IF THE SHIPS MODEL IS RIGHT ABOUT THE SHEAR... THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD FULLY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR.

subTD 22 - 8-Oct-05