Tammy sprouts offshore

This morning when I woke up, they were just talking about the system in the Bahamas potentially becoming a tropical depression. I get out of the shower and it gets turned into TS Tammy with a center just off the coast of Florida. Good grief.

Fortunately, it's not forecast to have much time to get any stronger than a tropical storm, so I expect the rest of the week to be breezy and rainy.

From today's 0730 discussion:

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY IS MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 335/14 BASED PRIMARILY ON RADAR FIXES. THE STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW OVER THE GULF TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES OFFSHORE. THEREFORE... ONLY A SUBTLE BEND TO THE WEST IN THE HEADING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. DUE TO THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF THE CENTER OF TAMMY TO THE COASTLINE... IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY THE LANDFALL TIME OR LOCATION OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER... IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO FOCUS ON THE LARGE AREA OF WINDS AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER... WHICH NECESSITATES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A LONG STRETCH OF COASTLINE. SINCE TAMMY IS UNDER MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR... ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY... AND THE ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN WILL PROBABLY PERSIST.

TS Tammy - 05-Oct-05