Gamma fizzling

Looks like TS Gamma is starting to fizzle out and may not last much longer. The forecast track has moved quite a bit south from yesterday too, so what remains of Gamma won't be much more than a rain event for Jamaica.

From this morning's 4 AM discussion:

EARLIER DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE HIGHEST 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN 37 KT IN A FEW SPOTS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STATUS. AT BEST...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS SUPPORT BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE FLIGHT LEGS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT... GAMMA IS BEING KEPT A TROPICAL STORM BUT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT... WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS

...

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN A SHEARING PATTERN ACROSS GAMMA. THE RESULT IS THAT THE CYCLONE NOW APPEARS TO BE VERTICALLY LESS DEEP THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... AND THE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE AROUND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THE VARIOUS NHC TRACK MODELS MOVE A WEAKENING GAMMA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS FORECASTING DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION BY 96 HOURS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND AGREES WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH EITHER DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION OCCURRING BY 72-96 HOURS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

TS Gamma - 20-Nov-05