Late season storminess

Looks like TD 27 resurrected itself and has become TS Gamma, making it the 24th named storm of the season. Doesn't look like it will get much stronger as it travels up through Cuba/Florida.

From this morning's 4 AM discussion:

A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GAMMA IS ALSO BEGINNING TO APPEAR AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALONG 85W LONGITUDE AND THE MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD OPEN AN ALLEY FOR GAMMA TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. PLAINS STATES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO MERGE AND DEVELOP INTO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE BY 60-72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GAMMA LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... THE BAHAMAS... AND POSSIBLY SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE GAMMA OR KEEP IT TRAPPED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS... WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE VERTICALLY DEEP CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA. AS SUCH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION SINCE THAT MODEL MAINTAINS A DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 120 HOURS.

SINCE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS GAMMA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.

TS Gamma - 19-Nov-05