The latest 5 AM forecast track for Ernesto carries it a little further east making another landfall over the Myrtle Beach area instead of on top of Charleston. That's good (at least a little better than before).
Looking at the NWS radar for Miami, most of the rain is on the left side of Ernesto, which is the side Charleston would be on. Ernesto ends up staying over warm water a little longer too on the current track, giving it time to strengthen. That's not so good.
From today's 5AM discussion:
AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO...IT WILL BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT OVER THE GULFSTREAM AND BENEATH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN UP AND IMPROVE THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO TODAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO RE-STRENGTHEN ONCE IT IS BACK OVER WATER. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL AGAIN...