First posthurricane!

Tropical storm Dean was upgraded to the year's first hurricane with today's 5AM advisory.

From the 3 and 5 day tracks, it looks like Dean will be heading through the Carribean and towards the Gulf and shouldn't be a problem for the East coast.

DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ASIDE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF FLORIDA...AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THAT SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LITTLE INTERACTION WITH DEAN. THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DEAN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN FIVE DAYS.