Anticlimactic Hanna

Well, after all the build up, the encounter with Hanna ended up being pretty anticlimactic for the Lowcountry. From what I can tell after hanging out with Jared and others most of the day at Charleston Weather, Hanna ended up being mostly a rain event without much in the way of wind. There wasn't much more than a nice breeze here at the house most of the day with a few periods of heavy rain that didn't last very long. There were definitely stronger winds higher up because some of those clouds were really cruising along but none of them reached down to the ground around here. A farily steady rain through the evening kept things pretty wet though.

Ike on the other hand is still a very powerful Category 3 storm heading toward the Carribean. Looks like Ike is likely headed through the Straits of Florida and then into the Gulf of Mexico. I think unless there are some serious issues with the forecast models, the eastern coast of the US will be spared from having to deal with Ike. Cuba, Florida and the Gulf coast states on the other hand will need to watch Ike very carefully.

From today's 5 AM advisory for Ike:

ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY SHEAR SEEMS TO BE PERSISTING OVER THE CYCLONE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AS MUCH AS IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE IKE MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT NOW DEPICTS SOME WEAKENING AS IKE TRAVERSES THE CUBAN COAST. OF COURSE...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WILL EITHER ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WATER OR A LONGER PERIOD OF WEAKENING OVER LAND. LATER ON...CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE IKE TO MOVE IN A MORE WESTWARD FASHION. AFTERWARD...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE EXTENSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF/STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL ERODE JUST ENOUGH TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE IKE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. IN FACT...THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS ACTUALLY BRING THE CYCLONE OVER THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS.