Busy tropics

While everybody's eyes are on Gustav today, we will have Hanna to think about in the coming days. The current 5 day forecast for Hanna has it going along the Bahamas before reaching the Georgia/South Carolina coast sometime Friday as a Category 1 hurricane.

From today's 11AM update:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT HAS DISSIPATED...AND HANNA NOW FINDS ITSELF IN A VERY SMALL AREA OF LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV'S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW JUST NORTH OF HANNA...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR PERSISTING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

After Hanna goes by, TD9 (designated with today's 11AM update), which will likely become TS Ike today or tomorrow, may be knocking on the door the week after.

From the 11AM discussion on TD9:

NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT THIS TIME BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF THE DEEP CONVECTION HOLDS FOR WHILE TO CALL IT A TROPICAL STORM...PROBABLY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.