TS Erika

It's September which means we're starting to get into the peak of the hurricane season. Yesterday the NHC announced TS Erika had formed but forecast models don't have it strengthening a whole lot.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ERIKA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE... WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FARTHER TO THE WEST IS LIKELY TO IMPART INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON ERIKA...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...BUT BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

It'll definitely be something to watch after the weekend when I get back from Dragon*Con.

TS Erika 02-SEP-09